By: Kobayashi Koichi, Nagoya University (re-published)
On September 5, in Nagoya, Japan, an academic journal called "Izu View the World" published an article by Kobayashi Koichi, professor of international politics at Nagoya University. The article believes that within the next 10 years, the United States is very likely to suddenly split and collapse! Once the article was published, it immediately caused an uproar all over the world.
This signed article "A Split United States and the Split of the United States" believes that there are three contradictions in the United States that can never be overcome. It is these three insurmountable and deep-rooted contradictions that will promote the powerful United States of America, like an invincible one. Like the former Soviet Union, it will eventually lead to an irreversible disintegration. It's just that the trajectory of their extinction happened in the opposite direction.
These three contradictions are:
1) deep-rooted racial discrimination, racial contradictions caused by
2) the vitality of the internal mechanism of the American democratic system is becoming increasingly exhausted;
3) people's excessive claims for freedom and the contradiction between reality and capacity. These three contradictions have become chronic diseases that the American society cannot cure. In particular, racial contradictions and racial divides are the deadlock of American.
A few days ago, in Kenosha, Wisconsin, a white police officer fired seven shots in the back of a black man who refused to interrogate, causing a riot in the city. Later, another white teenager shot at the demonstrators on the grounds of the "Protection Office", causing 2 deaths and 1 serious injury. The series of incidents will surely set off a wave of national protests again. It is only three months away from the "Floyd" riot police case in Minnesota. What happened to the United States?
Racial riots have occurred many times in the history of the United States, but the difference is that in the past, they were mostly concentrated in black settlements. Now, through the spread of new media mobile phones, the emotional appeal of the masses and the ability of rapid social mobilization, a little spark instantly burned across the United States.
On the other hand, radical white groups have also increased their cohesion and expansion. Armed militias have swaggered across the streets with automatic rifles, and they are sometimes seen by the police as an aid to maintaining social order. As a result, intensified ethnic riots, radical white armed militias became more arrogant, and President Trump fanned the fire all day, creating internal and external divisions. These phenomena are concurrent, is it just accidental? Or is it a symptom of America's structural decline?
In 2019, a survey of the Brookings Institution in the United States released a report on the changes in the ethnic proportions of the U.S. population. Obviously, many questions were answered. In 1980, white Americans accounted for 79.6% of the population, and the rest were mainly blacks, including Latinos, Asians and other non-whites. In 2018, whites accounted for 60.4%, and non-whites accounted for nearly 40%. In about 40 years, whites dropped 20%. As for the population under 15 years of age, in 1980, whites accounted for 73%, but in 2018, whites accounted for only 49.9%, falling to less than half. According to this trend, in about the next 20 years, the white population will be less than half of the national population, and whites under 30 will become a clear minority. This quantitative change in demographic structure will fundamentally change American politics.
There are two important points: one is that from the federal to the local level, more non-whites will control power; the second is that non-whites will redistribute economic and social resources through legislation. This fundamental change in political power and social and economic resources will exacerbate social divisions and bring suffering.
The current rapid growth of white fierce groups, including the rise of Trump, is the product of intense white fear. In the current presidential election, no matter who wins, the other side will fall into hysterical despair and anger. The solution that the United States can provide is the American representative politics produced by the combination of liberalism, individualism, and capitalism, and it firmly believes that this is the highest moral and most effective way of governance for mankind to date.
However the new crown pneumonia that has swept the world has broken this illusion. The United States is the worst-performing country in the world. American governance not only does not help, but further worsens the situation. It also allows the original racial, economic and cultural ills to be concurrent and out of control. .
Even from the perspective of simple demographic politics, which country in the world can maintain the unity of politics and land for a long time without a stable majority of races? No, none of them.
With the historical shadow of black American history being trafficked, enslaved, and discriminated against by whites, the future great schism in the United States will be full of hatred and blood, and it is very likely that it will be on the verge of a civil war in an instant. The United States is the country with the most nuclear weapons in the world. The disintegration of the United States is far more serious than the former Soviet Union. It will be a disaster for mankind, which is unimaginable.
Thirty years ago, between us and this generation, it seemed that immigrating to the United States was the inevitable end of our road map to success in life. Judging from the current situation, in the next 20 years, the immigration route will be reversed, and many Americans will want to move to other countries.
Within 10 years, will the United States go to collapse? This sounds like the conclusion of the Arabian Nights, which makes people feel incredible. Just like the disintegration of the Soviet Union back then, it was far beyond people's expectations. However, history is like this, always full of uncertainty! You never know what will happen tomorrow. Therefore, the collapse and disintegration of the United States are inherently within the realm of heaven.What is heaven? The film "Loying Gorge" shot in 1971 had a wonderful analysis of heaven and humanity."Good and evil will be rewarded, and the way of heaven is reincarnation.If you don't believe me, look up, who is forgiven by the sky. " A nation, a country, and a political entity are just like a person. If bad things are done absolutely, it will also suffer revenge from God.
The United States is such a special existence. According to ordinary people, it has not done good things for a few days in the 200 years since its founding.
A nation that likes to impose its own will on other nations; a nation that likes it at every turn to destroy other nations; a political entity that expands everywhere, dominates people everywhere, and flaunts its strength everywhere, there will eventually be a day of exhaustion.
Perhaps this is more the law of history!
In this way, whether it is history, reality, or logic, the United States seems to be "advancing bravely" toward the goal of doomsday.